Geopolitics

Trump

US-Iran ceasefire continues through...?

October 31100%YES NO
November 2100%YES NO

$39.6M VolIranJan 1 · 4:59 AM

FOMC

25 bps increase79%YES NO
No change21%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps decrease0%YES NO

$12.3M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

$77.5M VolMilitary StrikesJan 1 · 4:59 AM

US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?

March 3163%YES NO
December 3139%YES NO
November 3022%YES NO
November 159%YES NO

$47.4M VolIranJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Republican Senate seats after the midterms (Lower Brackets)

4474%YES NO
4522%YES NO
464%YES NO

$584.5K VolTrumpNov 3 · 5:00 PM

Trump out as President before 2027?

$13.8M VolPoliticsJan 1 · 4:59 AM

US-Iran Hormuz Agreement by...?

December 3136%YES NO
November 3022%YES NO
November 61%YES NO

$3.5M VolIranJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Trump declares election interference national emergency by...?

$528.8K VolTrumpJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?

$29.3M VolReza PahlaviJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?

$24.9M VolCryptoJan 1 · 5:00 AM

US imports Russian diesel by...?

March 3125%YES NO
January 3124%YES NO
December 3118%YES NO
November 3016%YES NO
November 159%YES NO

$980.6K VolOilApr 1 · 3:59 AM

Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?

$1.1M VolTrump CabinetJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?

December 31, 202638%YES NO
November 30, 202627%YES NO

$1.3M VolIranDec 31 · 11:59 PM

Republican House seats after the 2026 midterm elections?

Below 19099%YES NO
190-1941%YES NO
195-1990%YES NO
200-2040%YES NO

$694.1K VolMidtermsNov 4 · 4:59 AM

US-Iran effective ceasefire continues through...?

November 595%YES NO
November 691%YES NO
November 877%YES NO
November 1556%YES NO
November 3040%YES NO
December 3128%YES NO

$65.8K VolIranJan 1 · 4:59 AM