Economy

Fed Rates

FOMC

25 bps increase79%YES NO
No change21%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps decrease0%YES NO

$12.3M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

$1.4M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%YES NO
1 (25 bps)1%YES NO
2 (50 bps)0%YES NO
3 (75 bps)0%YES NO
4 (100 bps)0%YES NO
5 (125 bps)0%YES NO

$55.4M VolRewards 200, 4.5, 50 DeprecJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Fed 3-Parlay

Pause-Hike-Pause71%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Hike13%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Pause7%YES NO
Pause-Hike-Hike7%YES NO
Other0%YES NO

$146.7K VolFedJan 27 · 11:59 PM

FOMC

No change73%YES NO
25 bps increase25%YES NO
25 bps decrease2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease1%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO

$1.1M VolFedJan 28 · 4:59 AM

Fed 3-Parlay

Hike–Pause–Hike77%YES NO
Hike–Pause–Pause23%YES NO
Other1%YES NO

$582.5K VolFedDec 9 · 11:59 PM

How low will 5-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.70%91%YES NO
Below 4.65%81%YES NO
Below 4.60%59%YES NO
Below 4.55%53%YES NO
Below 4.50%47%YES NO
Below 4.45%33%YES NO

$449.7K VolFinanceDec 31 · 12:00 AM

FOMC

No change48%YES NO
25 bps increase48%YES NO
25 bps decrease4%YES NO
50+ bps increase2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease1%YES NO

$66.1K VolFedMar 18 · 3:59 AM

FOMC

No change56%YES NO
25 bps increase26%YES NO
25 bps decrease13%YES NO
50+ bps decrease4%YES NO
50+ bps increase2%YES NO

$35.2K VolFedApr 28 · 11:59 PM

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%74%YES NO
4.0%23%YES NO
≥ 4.5%2%YES NO
3.5%1%YES NO
3.75%1%YES NO
2.25%0%YES NO

$7.1M VolFed RatesJan 1 · 4:59 AM

How high 10-year Treasury

5.3%28%YES NO
5.4%22%YES NO
5.5%11%YES NO
5.7%6%YES NO
6.0%3%YES NO

$1.1M VolFed RatesJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Fed rate cut by...?

July 2027 Meeting51%YES NO
April 2027 Meeting49%YES NO
June 2027 Meeting30%YES NO
March 2027 Meeting13%YES NO
January 2027 Meeting9%YES NO
December 2026 Meeting1%YES NO

$3.9M VolFedJan 29 · 4:59 AM

How low will 10-year Treasury yield get before 2027?

Below 4.9%90%YES NO
Below 4.8%59%YES NO
Below 4.7%45%YES NO
Below 4.6%26%YES NO
Below 4.5%13%YES NO
Below 4.4%12%YES NO

$520.1K VolBusinessJan 1 · 4:59 AM

How high will 5-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.90%60%YES NO
5.00%45%YES NO
5.05%35%YES NO
5.10%29%YES NO
5.15%23%YES NO
5.25%13%YES NO

$253.4K VolFinanceDec 31 · 12:00 AM

How high will 2-year Treasury yield go before 2027?

4.75%70%YES NO
4.80%62%YES NO
4.85%50%YES NO
4.90%36%YES NO
5.00%28%YES NO
5.10%13%YES NO

$34.9K VolFinanceJan 1 · 4:59 AM