Economy

Economic Policy

FOMC

25 bps increase79%YES NO
No change21%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps decrease0%YES NO

$12.3M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

$1.4M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)97%YES NO
1 (25 bps)1%YES NO
2 (50 bps)0%YES NO
3 (75 bps)0%YES NO
4 (100 bps)0%YES NO
5 (125 bps)0%YES NO

$55.4M VolRewards 200, 4.5, 50 DeprecJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Fed 3-Parlay

Pause-Hike-Pause71%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Hike13%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Pause7%YES NO
Pause-Hike-Hike7%YES NO
Other0%YES NO

$146.7K VolFedJan 27 · 11:59 PM

FOMC

No change73%YES NO
25 bps increase25%YES NO
25 bps decrease2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease1%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO

$1.1M VolFedJan 28 · 4:59 AM

gdp quarterly

1.5% to 2.0%19%YES NO
2.0% to 2.5%18%YES NO
<1.5%13%YES NO
2.5% to 3.0%12%YES NO
≥4.0%12%YES NO
3.5% to 4.0%11%YES NO

$27.4K VolGDPJan 29 · 4:59 AM

Fed 3-Parlay

Hike–Pause–Hike77%YES NO
Hike–Pause–Pause23%YES NO
Other1%YES NO

$582.5K VolFedDec 9 · 11:59 PM

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision

25 bps increase51%YES NO
No Change39%YES NO
25 bps decrease8%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO

$27K VolRBNZMar 17 · 11:59 PM

Swiss national bank decision

25 bps increase41%YES NO
No Change30%YES NO
25 bps decrease20%YES NO
50+ bps increase14%YES NO
50+ bps decrease5%YES NO

$13.4K VolSNBJun 24 · 11:59 PM

FOMC

No change48%YES NO
25 bps increase48%YES NO
25 bps decrease4%YES NO
50+ bps increase2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease1%YES NO

$66.1K VolFedMar 18 · 3:59 AM

Reserve Bank of New Zealand Decision

25 bps increase70%YES NO
No change21%YES NO
50+ bps increase3%YES NO
25 bps decrease2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO

$55.9K VolRBNZDec 9 · 12:00 AM

Swiss national bank decision

No Change46%YES NO
25 bps increase45%YES NO
50+ bps decrease5%YES NO
50+ bps increase3%YES NO
25 bps decrease2%YES NO

$15.1K VolSNBMar 18 · 11:59 PM

FOMC

No change55%YES NO
25 bps increase26%YES NO
25 bps decrease13%YES NO
50+ bps decrease4%YES NO
50+ bps increase2%YES NO

$35.2K VolFedApr 28 · 11:59 PM

US recession by

$2.4M VolBusinessDec 31 · 12:00 AM

What will the Fed rate be at the end of 2026?

4.25%74%YES NO
4.0%23%YES NO
≥ 4.5%2%YES NO
3.5%1%YES NO
3.75%1%YES NO
2.25%0%YES NO

$7.1M VolFed RatesJan 1 · 4:59 AM