Business

Economy

FOMC

25 bps increase81%YES NO
No change20%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps decrease0%YES NO

$12.5M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

Hormuz Traffic Returns to Normal

$16.5M VolPoliticsJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Another Fed rate hike in 2026?

$1.4M VolFedDec 10 · 4:59 AM

Bank of Mexico Decision

No change74%YES NO
25 bps decrease27%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps increase0%YES NO
50+ bps increase0%YES NO

$320K VolMexicoNov 5 · 11:59 PM

How many Fed rate cuts in 2026?

0 (0 bps)98%YES NO
1 (25 bps)1%YES NO
2 (50 bps)0%YES NO
3 (75 bps)0%YES NO
4 (100 bps)0%YES NO
5 (125 bps)0%YES NO

$55.4M VolRewards 200, 4.5, 50 DeprecJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Bank of England decision

25 bps increase99%YES NO
No change1%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO
25 bps decrease0%YES NO
50+ bps increase0%YES NO

$488.5K VolBOENov 5 · 11:59 PM

Dem sweep & Gas hits $3.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas93%YES NO
Dem sweep; Gas hits $3.506%YES NO
No Dem sweep; No $3.50 gas0%YES NO

$45.3K VolEconomyJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Largest Company

Apple54%YES NO
NVIDIA42%YES NO
Alphabet1%YES NO
Microsoft0%YES NO
Tesla0%YES NO
Saudi Aramco0%YES NO

$9.5M VolEconomyJan 1 · 4:59 AM

Fed 3-Parlay

Pause-Hike-Pause71%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Hike13%YES NO
Pause-Hike-Hike8%YES NO
Pause-Pause-Pause7%YES NO
Other1%YES NO

$146.7K VolFedJan 27 · 11:59 PM

Bank of Brazil decision

No Change85%YES NO
25 bps decrease14%YES NO
50+ bps increase0%YES NO
25 bps increase0%YES NO
50+ bps decrease0%YES NO

$163.7K VolBrazilNov 4 · 11:59 AM

FOMC

No change74%YES NO
25 bps increase24%YES NO
25 bps decrease2%YES NO
50+ bps decrease1%YES NO
50+ bps increase1%YES NO

$1.1M VolFedJan 28 · 4:59 AM

Dem sweep & US recession by end of 2027?

Dem sweep; No recession65%YES NO
Dem sweep; Recession35%YES NO
No Dem sweep; Recession0%YES NO
No Dem sweep; No recession0%YES NO

$29.4K VolEconomyFeb 1 · 4:59 AM

Dem sweep & Gas hits $4.50 by end of 2026?

Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas70%YES NO
Dem sweep; Gas hits $4.5029%YES NO
No Dem sweep; Gas hits $4.500%YES NO
No Dem sweep; No $4.50 gas0%YES NO

$21.6K VolEconomyJan 1 · 4:59 AM

gdp quarterly

2.0% to 2.5%18%YES NO
1.5% to 2.0%16%YES NO
≥4.0%14%YES NO
2.5% to 3.0%12%YES NO
3.5% to 4.0%11%YES NO
3.0% to 3.5%9%YES NO

$27.9K VolGDPJan 29 · 4:59 AM

Largest Company

Company H50%YES NO
Company I50%YES NO
Company J50%YES NO
Company K50%YES NO
Company L50%YES NO
Company M50%YES NO

$29.9K VolTechDec 1 · 4:59 AM